Make Money on Betfair - Laying False
Favourites to Lose in Handicaps
by Keith Everett (view at ezinearticles.com)
Yes, you can make money on Betfair, laying false favourites
in handicaps.
Laying horses to lose is mainly about common sense - if you
want to be a long term player, it simply wont happen if you
keep laying favourites in novice hurdles, maiden races,
auction races, bumper races or claimers or sellers.
Why?
Well, look at the stats, look at any course in the UK when
they have a race meeting on and go to the racing post race
cards for that meeting - open the drop down list under
"favourites" and see for yourself the percentage of
favourites that win these races. Novice Hurdles? these races
can have a favourite WIN rate as high as 45% at some courses
- it's almost worth while BACKING them to win at some
courses.
Some maiden races at certain courses have equally high WIN
rates... No, not for me.
No, I have to say, Handicaps are for me and the sprintier
(is there such a word?) the better. - sprints are races of 5
or 6 Furlongs, and they usually get lots of jostling at the
start as the race is short and everyone is trying to get the
best position early on.
Now, not just any old handicaps - most tracks record less
favourites winning in all age handicaps, 4yo+ are best.
These are seasoned performers who have shown their worth (or
lack of it), yes some are still open to improvement but
generally - the cards are on the table for these horses.
Unlike 2 or 3 year old handicaps, surprises are more
uncommon - this gives us a great foundation for laying.
What do I look for? Horses that have won previously and a re
now being asked to do MORE - i.e up in class, up (or down)
in trip, these horses may also be carrying MORE weight - now
horses unproven at the distance, unproven at rise in class,
unproven at the track can all be good prospects to lay,
however if the opposition is pretty poor - the horse could
still win - Right?
What we need to look at is - is this the only fancied horse
in the race? - do some of its market rivals have winning
form?, is its winning form in the class of the race today
(this is good). Have these rivals been running on this
surface before, have they been winning on this surface
before, this distance, at this track etc.
You will be surprised at how many horses are made favourite
even though the horse has never run at the track or
distance. Some tracks are stiffer than others.
you get the general idea - look for favourites in all age
4YO+ handicaps at tracks where the favourite wins less than
30% of the time in these races. Look for favourites expected
to run up in class for the first time, unsure at the
distance, going etc - perhaps at this track for the first
time.
I hope this will help you in your quest for laying false
favourites - for
more information go here
I am an author and marketer on the Internet, I
enjoy discovering new ways to make money every
day, I love horse racing and I go racing here in
the south, when I can. I specialise in laying
horses to lose and I run a horse laying tips
service. You can get more information on laying
false favourites from Betfair Accredited trainer
Jonathan Burgess at http://www.layfalsefavourites.com
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Keith_Everett
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How a Horse Racing Betting System Changed My Life - Laying Horses to Lose
by Keith Everett (view at ezinearticles.com)
Why would I want to lay horses to lose? This is an article
on how to make money and have fun at the same time, through
horse racing. Did you know that less than 2% of people
actually make any money from horse racing? It's true, their
is an absolute mass of information out there via websites,
magazines, the form book, etc on how to win at horse racing,
yet still most people cannot turn a profit in the long term
and end up losing money.
Why is that?
It's quite simple really - people tend to treat it as a bit
of a game, a laugh, not to be taken too seriously.
Bookmakers get rich on this cavalier attitude, they have
big, big houses paid for and furnished by the "mugs" who
throw their money away on hopeless strategies and chance
They love the lucky fifteens, the 6 horse accumulators and
the 12 match coupon, these bets pay for all their luxury
holidays-
Do you know of any other moneymaking enterprise where you
would leave so much to chance? If you ran your everyday
business on tips & hearsay, you would soon be broke,
wouldn't you?
That's not to say that their aren't some good tipsters out
there, their are, but very few, good long term profitable
ones. So why leave horse racing to chance? sure it's a lot
of fun watching your horse run & lose, isn't it? Only if you
lay horses, then it's fun, if not - it's not fun, it's
MADNESS!!
Why do I lay horses to lose? How is this better than backing
them to win? It's simple; I have more horses running for me
in any given race than people who are backing to win and
although it's not easy,
I find it easier to find a short priced loser, than to find
a reasonable priced winner, this is very important. It's no
good betting favourites to win, as most of the prices
offered about these horses are far, far lower than their
actual chances of winning. A third of favourites win, most
punters bet the favourite, and although they win some of the
time, because of the mean prices on offer most of the time,
they will lose money overall.
What about betting on outsiders? Well, this is purely for
pin stickers unless "you know something", if a third of all
favourites win, this would leave 2 thirds of all winners
coming from the 2ndfavourite upwards - now approx 25% of
winners come from the 2nd favourite so it doesn't leave a
lot of room for the masses of outsiders that run each day.
Even with years of form study, you would still need a large
bank, the patience of a saint and you must expect very long
losing runs - a lot of professional gamblers have been broke
a few times before they got it right.
So, how am I better off laying horses to lose?
Psychologically, you are better off because you will win
more times than you lose (if you are doing this correctly),
also from a fun point of view, whereas with betting to win,
you are cheering one horse home, only to find it blunders
over the last and unseats the rider. With laying to lose you
are cheering everything on in the race, except the horse you
have laid to lose, believe me I've had some funny looks from
people at the racecourse as I switch allegiance to different
horses in the last half furlong at my local track.
And finally
Laying horses to lose has given me a lot of great enjoyment
and a nice income for spending time in study doing something
I love, you need to treat this wonderful business as, just
that - a business. Keep accounts of every horse you lay and
follow a strategy, a strategy of continuous improvement,
find out who knows what they are doing and learn as much
from them as you can.
Here's a WINNING
STRATEGY that
has paid dividends for me over the years, and it could for
you too.
And, please stop paying for all those luxuries the bookies
so enjoy, let someone else do that.
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Keith_Everett
My Horse Racing Tips For a Perfect Lay Bet
by Keith Everett (view at ezinearticles.com)
Having discovered the fortunes of laying some 4 years ago, I
wanted to pass some of my best lay tips on to you
The Power of the Sprint lay.
At the start of a 5 & 6 Furlong dash, and in 7 furlong
races, the dash to the line starts where every race starts -
the stalls. As these sprinters fly out of the traps, the
bee-line for the best position is sought.
Often it can be a hostile barging match with the favorite
sometimes getting the worst of it.
As these powerful sprinters go hurtling down the track, you
can often see betting shop punters tearing their tickets up
as early as the 4 or 5 furlong pole as their runner is
hopelessly outpaced or totally unbalanced in the early
stages..
To say these races were somewhat hectic would be a somewhat
understatement, of course, these races offer many
opportunities to the shrewd layer.
Looking at a horses previous form, in a similar race can
throw up many clues as to how it may perform in today's race
1) Does it often leave the stalls late or is it fast away?
2) Has it raced on this track before?
3) Has it raced on this surface before
4) Has it raced left handed/right handed before?
5) Does it have a favorable draw?
6) Is it younger or older than other fancied horses?
7) How much weight is it carrying more or less than other
fancied horses
8) Is it Male or Female?
9) Is it a winner over the distance?
You get the idea, obviously we are looking for a horse where
on previous occasions it may not have had a straightforward
run, i.e is it a bit slower than others out of the stalls,
what does it do at the finish, does it run on or does it
seem to not have much of a cruising speed, does it try at
the finish to get it's head in front or does it hold it's
head carriage up and flash it's tail, (check the video form)
does the form indicate it may be a not straightforward ride.
My perfect lay bet in a sprint would be a combination (not
necessarily all of these factors) of the above - perhaps
with a horse or filly that hasn't run in 2 or 3 weeks,
carrying a fair bit of weight considering it may not have
achieved much in the past, badly drawn and not the quickest
beast out of the traps - not a course & distance winner.
Laying Horses To Lose
by Keith Everett
How to make money from horse racing whilst having a whole lot of fun.
Did you know that less than 2% of people actually make any money from horse racing?
It’s true, their is an absolute mass of information out there via websites, magazines, the form book, etc on how to win at horseracing, yet still most people cannot turn a profit in the long term and end up losing money – why is that ?
It’s quite simple really – people tend to treat it as a bit of a game, a laugh, not to be taken too seriously.
Bookmakers get rich on this cavalier attitude, they have big, big houses paid for and furnished by the “mugs” who throw their money away on hopeless strategies and chance.
They love the lucky fifteens, the 6 horse accumulators and the 12 match coupon, these bets pay for all their luxury holidays.
Do you know of any other moneymaking enterprise where you would leave so much to chance?
If you ran your everyday business on tips & hearsay, you would soon be broke, wouldn’t you?
That’s not to say that their aren’t some good tipsters about, their are, but very few, good long term profitable ones.
So why leave horseracing to chance? sure it’s a lot of fun watching your horse run & lose, isn’t it ?
Only if you lay horses, then it’s fun, if not – it’s not fun, it’s MADNESS!!
Why do I lay horses to lose?
It’s simple, I have more horses running for me in any given race than people who are backing to win and although it’s not easy, I find it easier to find a short priced loser, than to find a reasonable priced winner.. this is very important.
It’s no good betting on favourites
A third of favourites win, most punters bet the favourite, and although they win some of the time, because of the mean prices on offer most of the time, they will lose money overall.
What about betting on outsiders? Well, this is purely for pin stickers unless “you know something”, if a third of all favourites win, this would leave 2 thirds of all winners coming from the 2nd favourite upwards – now approx 25% of winners come from the 2nd favourite so it doesn’t leave a lot of room for the masses of outsiders that run each day.
Even with years of form study, you would still need a large bank, the patience of a saint and must expect very long losing runs – most professional gamblers have been broke a few times before they got it right.
So, how am I better off laying horses to lose?
Psychologically, you are better off because you will win more times than you lose (if you are doing this correctly), also from a fun point of view, whereas with betting to win, you are cheering one horse home, only to find it blunders over the last and unseats the rider.
With laying to lose you are cheering everything on in the race, except the horse you have laid to lose, believe me I’ve had some funny looks from people at the racecourse as I switch allegiance to different horses in the last half furlong at my local track.
And finally
Laying horses to lose has given me a lot of great enjoyment and a nice income for spending time in study doing something I love.
You need to treat this wonderful business as, just that – a business. Keep accounts of every horse you lay and follow a strategy, a strategy of continuous improvement, find out who knows what they are doing and learn as much from them as you can.
Study all the articles on laying, form your own opinions of course and treat this as a never ending course of learning.
... and, please stop paying for all those luxuries the bookies so enjoy, let someone else do that.
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